Image via Wikipedia Bill Richardson Barack Obama Vice President - By Alex Hammer
If Barack Obama handles himself as well going forward (there have been some missteps but he is the sole Democrat standing in the 2008 race for President) as he has to this point in the campaign, he will select Bill Richardson as his running mate.
1. The Hispanic vote. This is not the only reason. It may or may not be the most important factor in the selection of Bill Richardson. But let us not kid ourselves in regard to what such a selection would mean in terms of the dynamics of this important voting demographic.
2. Resume. Bill Richardson ran as a resume candidate, and solidifies some of the areas in which Obama is comparatively weak, in general and against John McCain. Richardson brings not only experience but gravitas. However, and this is an important point, Richardson is well regarded but not an overwhelming presence or figure. He will not outshine Obama, and he will not attempt to do so.
3. Chemistry. Related to #2 but speaks to the dynamic between the two. Both Obama and Richardson are friendly, articulate, easygoing (the opposition might term it glib) politicians who know how to work a crowd, the media, and frame messages. They are at ease with each other, and radiate an energetic working style and flow that appears comfortable together and meshes well. Joe Biden would bring a similar type of experience to the ticket, if selected, but the Biden charisma (no offense to Biden, he's a great man, but is "Biden charisma" an oxymoron?) compared to Richardson just isn't there. Also, there is none of the apparent forced enthusiasm and effusiveness of Kerry - Edwards. It's more natural.
4. Loyalty. Speaking of Edwards, Edwards' endorsement was one factor helping to close the nomination in Obama's favor. But Richardson's endorsement came much earlier and thus at greater political risk. Richardon's endorsement, coming when it did, was a major move forward for the Obama camp in terms of gaining an advantage in the political deathmatch struggle that was occurring with Clinton at that time. This in itself demonstrated political courage for Richardson. When you couple that with the endorsement decision breaking away from Richardson's close political indebtedness to the Clintons, and the major political fallout he endured (e.g. James Carville Judas comment) by making the decision to abandon Hillary and support Obama against her at this critical juncture in the race, then you can understand why Barack is likely to feel just a little bit grateful to Bill Richardson (wouldn't you?).
5. He's not Hillary Clinton. This may be the most important reason of them all. John Edwards doesn't want to run for Vice President. He's already done that. Richardson, having run against Obama (but quick and enthusiastic to support him), now is a known, yet still fresh as well as nonthreatening entity with sufficient positives to add to a ticket to drone out those who will clamor - perhaps including Hillary herself - for a Clinton Vice Presidency. Clinton clearly has her eyes on "THE prize", is "in it to win it", spoke of the assassination of RFK some feel in the context of her Presidential aspirations, and is a Hillary player, not a team player (this focus on the White House is of course nothing new for her, some feel it is the reason she stayed with husband Bill despite years of his reported philandering). While Barack cannot well afford to alienate Hillary, and he has gone out of his way to insure that he doesn't, he can even much less afford to seek to ingratiate her by selecting her as his choice for VP. Forget about keeping your enemies closer, as one famous expression states, some political enemies (the most dangerous ones and Hillary is clearly among them) you just don't want that close.
Some will argue for electoral college math to be maximized and specific important state(s) won or put into play, or a balancing of the ticket on policy considerations as the major criteria upon which to select one's running mate. Obama and Richardson have enough in common (and also enough differences), for the five factors above to be compellingly and clearly more important, even moreso when you consider how little influence a VP choice can ultimately play in the final analysis on traditional selection factors.
Richardson has paid his dues to the party and to the nation, his timing in this election cycle was impeccable, and his time is now. Richardson represents the best of the past not tied to the past. His breaking away from the Clintons mirrors the nation's move beyond the Bush and Clinton Presidential leadership/placeholding (depending upon one's perspective) of the past two decades - 20 years.
John McCain represents a formidable obstacle, but certainly for the Democrats the future is now.
Obama - Richardson '08.
